Over the course of the last 3 + years I have repeatedly written about the "secular bull market theme" in my missives on this blog, in concert with my commentary on various articles published on Seeking Alpha. My message to follow the Long term trend that is in place has not wavered since I began publicly posting my thoughts.
I'll add that Seeking Alpha provided a good opportunity to get my message out and use the forum to improve my research.
I note as we enter the third quarter of 2015 , the dissenters, naysayers or whatever word one can conjure up to describe those that continue to argue their perspective with me, are still pretty vocal in their disdain of the equity market. I'll have more to say on this topic in future missives.
Bull markets are based on climbing the proverbial "wall of worry", and this cycle has been no different.
In my missive of June 20th I recently highlighted the views of many authors on Seeking Alpha, as an indication of the mindset that is present .
I have consistently argued that the current bull market could be one of the biggest we will witness in our lifetimes. Often calling it the "opportunity of a lifetime" , a 'game changing life event" for those that chose the bullish equity path in the last few years. To date that call has been on target.
That stance has continued to provoke the ire of many who simply don't wish to embrace this market. Sadly as I have stated many times, they have truly been left behind. I get no pleasure from making that comment, to the contrary it is truly a sad situation.
Both investors and corporations continue to act conservatively because of the uncertainty caused by a host of issues.
"Uncertainty" , doubt is typically the engine of bull markets.
Here's a list of the concerns I ran across this past week that many have cried over & over as reasons to stay on the sidelines. The true proverbial "wall of worry". From time to time I debunk many of these concerns as the "top callers " continue their assault on anyone that has reaped the rewards of staying on course in this equity market.
The list is long and has proven to have been relatively fruitless for anyone subscribing to it . The worries preys on investor psyche and with the financial crisis still fresh in many investors minds, I don't see that changing anytime soon. So for those that remain steadfast in their desire to garner portfolio gains from equity ownership, that is "bullish". One has to wonder when investors will grow tired of being so scared. My guess it will be at the TOP, in my view we are far from that on the sentiment, fundamental and technical levels.
Fundamentally we are at record corporate profits. Those profits have improved by 300 % since the 2009 lows. Coincidentally the market has increased threefold in that same time frame. The cries that the market has out gained corporate profits is uncalled for.
Technically -- the Long Term uptrend hasn't been violated. We can hear stories, commentary about divergences, short term technical trends, etc. that will in "their " view will "take the market down". To date it's been more of the same - sheer "noise". As long as the LT trend is not violated the market will continue to grind higher.
A well-thought-out financial plan is necessary for successful investing, but even the greatest plan won't bear fruit if an investor doesn't have the discipline required to stay the course. One of the best ways to "stay the course" is to avoid the market "noise" and the rhetoric from those that have had the market story wrong.
My message is a simple one --
Every time the stock market has broken decisively above the top side of a 10+ years "range-bound" market, it has ALWAYS been the dawn of a new secular bull market. I maintain that this time is no different.
Take note of the mid cycle low in 1974 during that base building pattern in the '66 to '82 time frame.
Fast forward to the present, and its easy to see what I have mentioned and displayed in other missives during the last 3 years. The market once again has decisively broken out of a long trading range. The DJIA and the S & P was range bound from 2000 to 2012 until it broke to the upside last year. Both the DJIA (16302.77) and the DJ Transports (7515.18) traded to new all-time highs. This was accompanied by the index I refer to most often, the S & P 500, which broke and closed (1570) above the 1550 level which had capped that index for 13 years. Now, take a look at the mid cycle low that was put in during 2008, before the breakout in 2013 occurred, and where we are today. The similarities between the earlier "base" period of '66-82 and the latest one are profound.
After the 1982 breakout the market went on a journey over an 18 year period that took the S & P from 138 to 1550. If the market responds in the same fashion as the last secular bull, we are in the early stages of a large percentage move that has plenty of room to run. I remember the doubters in 1982, and I hear the same cries from the crowd that continues to disbelieve the present market action now. Instead of reacting to the price action, many are still clinging on to their arguments for disaster. So just as we saw in 1982, many are still on the sidelines in denial or outright bearish.
To date, history is indeed repeating itself.
I have been correct on the direction of the equity market for over 3 years.
More Importantly, I have not wavered on that stance during all of the “issues “ that have been thrown out there. That is well documented on Seeking Alpha. During the course of the last 3 plus years I have commented on my use of Dow Theory, citing many occurrences that called for this rally to continue. Anyone following my posts should now realize that these "signals' are indeed "real" and to be reckoned with. Just go back and look at how many times they have been both recorded and mentioned in blog posts. My guess is about 16- 17 of those since I started commenting on this signal and "tool".
The market skeptics have this far fetched belief that anyone that has been bullish "will give it all back" - More Nonsense
My response to anyone with that frustrated bear mentality is simple
"What has transpired here in the stock market in the last few years is history and to attempt to downplay the results of anyone that has been in the bullish camp is disingenuous at the very least."
and I 'll follow that by suggesting one to take a look at this blog post on July 2013 , where I demonstrated that there will be sufficient time to react and make portfolio adjustments If and when those LT trends are violated. Ironically, I wrote that blog post to answer all of the concerns that were present in 2013, suggesting that the market had topped. Topped indeed . As shown in that commentary I used those principles in 2000 and again in 2007.
A lot of my commentary is automatically construed as being a Perma Bull.
Let's clarify ---- Nobody should be a "perma" anything. But if you must err to one side or the other, as a default setting of sorts, the right way to lean is obvious. Optimism as a Default Setting is the only way to successfully fund a retirement over the long stretch. Unless you believe that you have the god-like ability to dance into and out of the markets with good timing on a consistent basis.
On the other hand pessimism is intellectually seductive and the arguments always sound smarter, especially when they dovetail with our own worries. "Sounding" smarter doesn't necessarily produce the desired results. Just look at the results of the "top callers" and the "short sellers" since 2012.
That has been proven over & over in market history and is so abundantly evident during this secular bull phase that we are currently experiencing. I suggest it is different this time at all.
I tend to follow those (economists, strategists, etc.) that have had the market story correct when making my stock market assumptions and developing my strategy, and yes I do dismiss those that have perpetually had it wrong . As I keep saying to all, why should I follow them now ? Are they now "due " to finally make a correct call.. ? Sorry, MY money wont be going with that choice.
These missives aren't about following my market strategy, its about making the right choices for your own investment portfolio.
If you do nothing else, avoid the noise, stick with your plan and intermingle the thoughts and ideas of those that have had the market story correct. Over time it will become abundantly clear who those economists, strategists and firms are.
It will also become abundantly clear who isn't part of that select group. Avoid them at all costs.
My previous thought on this Secular Bull Market :