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Weekly Update- Sept. 4, 2015, the Bull market is at it’s most critical juncture since it began.

by Steve on 09/08/15

  • Seasonality is now an “issue”, as September hasn't been kind to investors over time.

  • The economy in the US is chugging along, but our equity market has decided to “disconnect”.

  • Given the present “technical” picture, the bulls will need to “pull a rabbit out of the hat”, to avoid more downside pain.

  • Corrective action continues, support appears to be in the the low to mid 1800’s on the S&P

"I don't want a lot of good investments, I want a few outstanding ones."

……… Philip A.Fisher

Weekly Market Update - August 22nd, The FED And EARNINGS, Amidst A Strong Dollar And Weak Crude Oil.

by Steve on 08/22/15

  • U.S. Dollar strength and weak Crude oil prices have had a major impact on Corporate Earnings.
  • It may be time for the Fed to start “rate normalization”, and that may be more of a positive than you think.
  • The news is all bad on the Chinese scene, or is it?, Look, before you jump to conclusions on the "Global" Economy.
  • A lackluster first half may set the tone for the next few months.
Read the complete update HERE 

Market Update Aug 15th - China & Crude Oil in the spotlight

by Steve on 08/15/15

China throws a punch, the market “Bobs”, “Weaves”, and remains on its feet. 

  • China sets the tone for the Stock market this past week by devaluing their currency

  • Knee Jerk reactions to “headlines” is not a good way to manage your investments

  • Despite more “news” on China, there is no global recession on the horizon

  • It is wise to be cautious right now, I don’t think it’s wise to turn your back on this market.

Read the weekly market update here

Weekly Market Update - Recent Earnings And Economic Data Are Positive As The Market Sells Off

by Steve on 08/08/15

  • Earnings season to date has been solid.
  • Housing and Autos lead the positive economic data recently reported.
  • Reports from the consumer arena are not as bad as they seem.
  • The market shrugs off the data as the the Fed and “rate normalization” comes back into focus.
Read the entire weekly update here 

Market Update - S & P What’s ahead, A pullback, correction, or maybe just a whimper from present levels.

by Steve on 08/01/15

  • Given the “technical “ issues that have surfaced, there is some caution warranted for the “short” term outlook in the equity market.

  • Equity market "internals" leave many unanswered questions for stocks in the near term.

  • Investors taking a long term view of the situation, see a global backdrop being presented that may notbe as bad as the headlines suggest.

  • Divergent views present the Japanese character, “Kanji” - “DangerandOpportunity”.

Read the complete market update for this week HERE

Mid year update - A current look at the Secular Bull Market

by Steve on 07/26/15

Thoughts, ideas, and issues confronting investors amidst a backdrop of fear 

Apple (AAPL) A common sense approach on what to do now.

by Steve on 07/22/15

Check out this link to my current thoughts on AAPL

NASDAQ Update 7-21-15, Its time to be logical

by Steve on 07/21/15

A picture is worth about 7 more paragraphs of my ramblings.

Can anyone see the pattern here ?

When the Nasdaq hits new highs (green arrows) and accelerates away from the ascending MA, becoming overbought, a funny thing happens. It corrects, falls back and consolidates before making an attempt at another new high.

The media, pundits and anyone that can spell QQQ are already proclaiming what effect AAPL may have on the markets after reporting earnings today.

So if THIS new high is now determined to be a "sell signal", suggesting that the Nasdaq is "rolling over" then one HAS to assume the same logic applied in Dec 14, Jan '15, Mar '15, Apr '15, June "15 and now July '15.

Using that convoluted logic would then further imply that one disdained the Nasdaq since Dec '14 , 400 points or some 8% ago.  

Worse yet, and much more harmful, implying that one should short the index.

Perhaps I can go back further in early '14 and demonstrate larger  gains that would have been left on the table using this wrong footed approach to the markets.

What may happen to the Nasdaq in the coming days, weeks, as it shows weakness here is quite a normal event within the context of a bull market ..

And therein lies the issue, as some don't give any credence to the backdrop of a bull market and what effect it does have on price action.  

Of course one could always tell me that THIS time is different

It may be time for a breather, but this isn't the last high we will see on the Nasdaq.

Best of Luck to all

Check out the July Earnings Season results

by Steve on 07/19/15

Updated daily , the current earnings results , check them out as part of your daily routine.

Market Update July 17th part II -- Individual stocks & Conclusion

by Steve on 07/17/15

Individual Stocks

Last week I mentioned that I added more AAPL shares based on the technical situation that was presented to me. It is nice when these situations do work out as AAPL is up   from the bounce off of its 200 day MA.

CELG jumped to a new high this past week. Shares are up 22% since I was fortunate to add them as a long term holding on May 2nd.  I sold the ‘playbook” position, but continue to HOLD shares in my LT portfolio as I believe the LT prospects for the company remain robust.

GILD is another stock that I believe anyone with a long term view can take a look at.  The shares hit a high of $122 recently , then were sold off down to the $112 level during the latest ‘crisis du jour”. The shares sit at the $117 level after a slight rebound from the recent low. It is a classic “breakout” and it becomes attractive on any pullback.

Dividend Growth Investors might want to take a look at JNJ. A dividend aristocrat, with a current yield of 3% that boasts a 10 year Dividend growth rate of 9.7%.  Trading at the low end of its trading range this year, it may be time to accumulate.

UNH beat earnings, and raised guidance. Its in the healthcare space, and that should continue to be a leading sector. Investors are looking for growth and the healthcare sector is providing that. Solid chart, yields 1.6%, the dividend has more than doubled since 2011.

Staying with the other two names I mentioned last week, BABA and DAL as strong candidates to add to any portfolio with a long term view.

Summary and Conclusion

During the time that I have spent publicly conveying my thoughts, ideas and theories on the markets, I have often found that it can be a difficult task. The difficult part is communicating these ideas and a stock market approach to such a widely diversified audience.  

It’s always important to keep in mind that age, station in life, risk tolerance, along with a myriad of other factors have to be considered when sculpting your market strategy.  

I will share one rule today, that In my view,  should be part of a common sense approach to investing.

Despite my bullish stance over the last 3 plus years I have stated over and over again, if you are going to “bet the farm” when sizing up the stock market, you better have two farms.  

I don’t believe in going ‘all In” and have never professed that, no matter how bullish I may be. It’s a recipe for disaster. I posted that commentary here on Dec 2014 after new highs.

The commentary below from my July 2014 missive also expresses those thoughts as well.

“That should NOT imply that I am throwing caution to the wind. I have often suggested prudent investors should harvest outsized gains on stretched positions, sell upside calls and always have some dry powder to put to work on pullbacks.. and as already noted - be selective with your stock selections.”

That same approach holds true today for me.

This time Last year I shared my thoughts on the “Secular Bull” Story and where I thought the stock market was headed into early 2015. I’ll review those thoughts from that missive, and next week I will attempt to do the same for the remainder of this year and early 2016.

Stay Tuned

Best of luck to all !!

China News, Energy still weak,, but don't get too negative on this Bull market. Stay focused & look for opportunity.
Copyright RTRLLC